Preemptive Strike

From Menletter December 2007

By Tim Baehr

The statistics are grim. If you quit smoking, you have a 3 to 5 percent chance of succeeding on your own, twice that with nicotine replacement therapy, and about 22 percent if you complete a 10-week cessation program. If you quit drinking, you have a 5 percent chance of succeeding long-term no matter whether you quit alone or join a recovery group. (Alcoholics Anonymous may claim better results, but they typically count only those who remain in the program faithfully.) Drug treatment statistics are similar. Only about 14 percent of survivors of heart attacks stick with the diet and exercise programs prescribed for them to avoid a recurrence.

The average success rate is probably around 5 percent. More on this later.

I don't think there's any magic or medication to improve on these statistics - much less any logic-based or fact-based information about shortened lives or, worse, the prospect of a prolonged disability. Very few people are susceptible to being "scared straight," or none of us would be abusing our bodies.

I have no illusion that my words are magical, but if you'll indulge an old geezer who wrestled successfully (so far) with nicotine, booze, and overweight, I'd like to point a couple of things out, especially to you younger guys.

If you're hearing even the tiniest inner voice telling you that your life might be better in the absence of some substance or bad habit, listen to that inner voice now. Before you can drown it out with rationalizations. Before the whisper becomes a shout.

It's never too early or too late, of course. But early may be easier, and you get to enjoy the results longer.

If we think we have no will power or that we're powerless to change our life, we can think about the things we have succeeded in. Any of us should be able to come up with at least one accomplishment that 95 percent of the rest of the world couldn't - or wouldn't - do. If we can be among the successful 5 percent at one thing, why not another? That's not to say that we may not need any help from friends, family, a group, or a spiritual being. Or inspiration from other guys who've made it. But it starts with us.

The year's turning is at hand, time for all those empty promises (called "resolutions") we make. How about stacking the deck in favor or one we can keep? Let's make the 5 percent work for us: "I will try as many as 20 times to change one thing in my life to make it better. If it takes me 20 tries over 20 days, 20 weeks, 20 months, or 20 years, I'll keep on trying." Each try is 5 percent of the total. We've just upped the odds.

Happy New Year.